Frenzy Monitor | bubbleinfo.com

Let’s break down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give you a closer look at the neighborhood stats.  We’re going to have more active listings simply because the the list prices were all based on red-hot frenzy conditions (comps + 5% or more), and we’re past the red-hot days.

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town/Area	Zip Code	Feb 27	Mar 16	May 5	Jun 20
Cardiff	92007	5/7	6/4	7/7	13/5
Carlsbad NW	92008	6/9	8/10	15/10	27/10
Carlsbad SE	92009	15/29	8/33	20/27	47/25
Carlsbad NE	92010	1/5	2/6	7/14	17/11
Carlsbad SW	92011	2/11	4/12	8/16	19/19
Carmel Valley	92130	10/31	10/30	22/25	50/18
Del Mar	92014	15/32	17/10	24/13	30/8
Encinitas	92024	15/32	17/28	24/32	46/26
La Jolla	92037	53/38	55/35	51/32	72/24
Rancho Santa Fe	92067	45/22	47/24	49/22	52/25
Rancho Santa Fe	92091	2/2	5/2	2/0	3/2
Solana Bch	92075	6/6	3/10	9/7	12/5
NSDCC	All Above	179/205	182/204	238/205	388/178

The selling season started early in 2022, and was cooking by the end of February. Let’s group the different areas based on how their pendings are holding up.

Frenzy-ish:

Carlsbad SW – A few houses finally went up for sale, and buyers responded.

Rancho Santa Fe – The active listings aren’t growing like in the other high-end areas of Del Mar and La Jolla, and the number of pendings are very impressive. It was once normal when the Ranch had a 10:1 ratio between actives and pendings!

Normal-ish:

Everyone else, except……

Crash Zone

Carmel Valley – which has always had more pendings than actives over the last two years – and sometimes twice as many pendings!  While having 50 actives and 18 pendings anywhere else would be a win, in the CV it feels like a meltdown.

Here they are:

(I tried to sort those by price order, but all they have is sort by date added)

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This nonsense about every buyer paying way over list price has to stop.  If the SP:LP was around 100% we’d be elated, yet it was 111%, 109%, and 109% in the February-April stretch.

So far in June, the SP:LP is 107% for the 104 detached-home sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla!

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We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing – it’s early so nothing too startling yet:

The hottest of the red-hot was in 2020, when we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on 9/7/2020. Today we have 178 pendings.